The Root causes of Somaliland Political Argument
Exactly twenty years ago, Somaliland conducted in 2002, the first one person one vote election since it declared the restoration of independence in 1991. After the approval of a constitution in 2001, Somalilanders lined up to vote for local councils for their districts on 15 December 2002. Less than six months later, a presidential election was competed on 14 April 2003.
The then incumbent won by a narrow margin of fewer than three hundred votes. In November 2005, the first parliamentary election took place where 82 members of the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, the House of Representatives, were elected from all the six regions of Somaliland.5 The opposition parties gained the majority of the House. The first cycle of Somaliland’s democratization process was a success story.
The second phase of the election cycle, however, faced challenges. When the term of the local councils expired in 2007, their term was extended until 2012. President Dahir Rayale Kahin, who was elected in 2003 for five years term, stayed in power until the 2010 presidential election when he lost to the opposition contender, Ahmed Silanyo. The extensions received by President Rayale
were controversial. The opposition took the streets, and the international community intervened to mediate the parties. In 2009, six points agreement was reached that paved the way for the 2010 elections.
The victory of the opposition leader, Ahmed Silanyo, who long opposed extensions and delays of elections, has not solved the issue. Silanyo himself got extensions twice. His term expired in 2015, but the presidential election took place on 13 November 2017. The members of the House of Representatives who were elected in 2005 held on power up to May 2021. They exceeded their term of 11 years.
1. Multi-party system
When the Siyad Barre’s government collapsed and Somaliland declared the restoration of independence in 1991 series of peacebuilding and state-building conferences took place in Somaliland.8 In the 1991 Burao Conference, the Somali National Movement (SNM) leadership, the rebel that ousted Siad Barre from Somaliland, was mandated to lead the new republic for two years transitional term. In 1993, a conference was convened in Borama town to elect new administration as that of the SNM leadership has ended.
At Borama, a Peace Charter and a National Charter, a constitutional framework, were approved by delegates representing various clans. The next conference took place in Hargeisa in 1996/1997. In the 1996/997 Hargeisa Conference, delegates representing clans decided to transition from a clan-based selection of political leaders to elections of universal suffrage based on a constitution. The delegates passed a provisional constitution that obligated the government to hold a national referendum. In 2001 the voters approved an overwhelmingly the constitution. Article 9 of the Constitution stipulates as follows:
- The political system of the Republic of Somaliland shall be based on peace, co-operation, democracy and multi-party system.
- The number of political parties in the Republic of Somaliland shall not exceed three (3).
- A special law shall determine the procedures for the formation of a political party, but it is unlawful for any political party to be based on regionalism or clannism.
- The political system of the Republic of Somaliland shall be based on peace, co-operation, democracy and multi-party system.
- The number of political parties in the Republic of Somaliland shall not exceed three (3).
- A special law shall determine the procedures for the formation of a political party, but it is unlawful for any political party to be based on regionalism or clannism.
1.1 Registration of new political associations
The Law for Regulation of Political Associations and Certification of Political Parties (hereafter referred to as Law No. 14) was promulgated to accommodate the limitations in the constitution. Law No. 14 required the registration of new political associations that shall compete in local councils.
The top three winners shall become the three political parties eligible to participate in national elections. In 2002, six political associations were registered. UDUB, Kulmiye and UCID were declared the winners of the 2002 elections and participated in subsequent elections held in 2003 (presidential), 2005 (House of Representatives) and in 2010 (presidential elections).
The understanding of the then ruling party, UDUB, was that no political parties/associations could be registered in Somaliland, and the parties that won the 2002 elections shall remain permanently the only permitted parties in Somaliland. Politicians opposed to this stance started to form Qaran Party. The leaders of Qaran were arrested, tried and sentenced. Afterwards, they were pardoned by the President.
The Qaran politicians joined forces with the then opposition party, Kulmiye, which won the 2010 presidential elections. Law No. 14 was amended in 2011 to include new clauses permitting the registration of new parties every ten years. Existing parties (three) and newly registered associations shall compete in local council elections every ten years. Those with the highest number of voters shall become political parties in the following ten years.
In 2012, new political associations were registered under the amendment and ran the local elections. UCID, Kulmiye and WADDANI emerged as the official parties. The next local councils’ elections were scheduled five years later, in 2017. This election did happen on time due to postponements. The local council elections took place in 2021, four years later than the scheduled date. This delay has disrupted the purpose of Law No. 14, which was to hold local council elections every five years. Due to the postponement of the 2017 elections, there are no local council elections scheduled in 2022, the date the licenses of the political parties will expire, and the Law obligates the registration of new political associations.
1.2 Amendment
In 2021, the Parliament amended Law No. 14 to fill the legal lacunae created by the 2017 local council elections delay. A number of inclusions were made, but the most important and impactful change affected how new political associations shall compete to become parties. Instead of holding the competition in local councils’ elections, the 2021 amendment stated that new political associations and existing parties should compete in an exclusively held election. It removed the
Articles referring to local council elections. Both Houses approved the amendment. President Muse Bihi Abdi returned the amendment on the grounds that the amendment is illegal and contrary to existing laws and election schedules.
New controversy arose surrounding the legality of the President’s return of the amended law. One argument states that the President has passed the 21 days requirement set out in the constitution, and therefore, the amendment becomes law automatically. Article 77(5,6) of the Constitution says:
The President shall sign any bill forwarded to him by Parliament within three weeks (21 days) beginning from the date when the bill was received at the Office of the President, providing that he has not referred it back to Parliament.
If the President fails to sign a bill forwarded to him by Parliament within the requisite period, and has not referred it back to Parliament, then the bill shall henceforth become law, and shall be promulgated by the House which forwarded it (to the President).
The opposite argument, held mainly by the opposition parties, contended that the due to the transition period caused by the elections of new members of the House of Representatives gave the President an excuse to wait for the takeover of the new members of the House before submitting his changes.
1.3 The judgment of the Supreme Court
A constitutional case was submitted to the Supreme Court by citizens who argued that original Law No. 14 amended in 2011 is applicable irrespective of the disputed changes as the ten years of the license for the political parties is expiring. The Court agreed with the plaintiffs’ contention and ruled that new political associations shall be registered in accordance with Law No. 14 as amended in 2011.
The Court further added that there is no need for local councils’ elections for new political associations to compete. Hence a direct election for new political associations and the existing political parties shall be held where the three with the highest votes will become the three parties to compete in national elections in the following ten years.
As a result of the Court’s decision, the President nominated seven members to serve the Commission for the Registration of Political Associations and Certification of Political Parties established under Law No. 14. On 23 May 2022, four of the nominated members received the approval of the House of Representatives, and the House rejected three. The approval of the majority of the members of the Commission paved the way for operations of the Commission, which informed aspirants of new political associations to embark on the process in a meeting that took place on 29 May 2022.
1.3 Renewed dispute
The current political stalemate is a result of the extension of terms. Constitutionally the mandate of President Silanyo ended in 2015. Nevertheless, no election took place that year, and President Silanyo vacated the office on 13 December 2017, delaying the presidential elections by two years and four months.
The license of the political parties shall expire every ten years, starting from 2012, when the local councils’ elections took place. However, the election cycle for local councils was disrupted due to delays. Instead of holding local councils’ elections in 2017, the elections were held in May 2021. Therefore, in 2022 two elections coincided unplanned due to election delays and extension of terms.
The dispute over the election date
The opposition parties, WADDANI and UCID, hold that the presidential election scheduled for 13 November 2022 shall take place first, followed by the elections of political associations. The contention is that the presidential election is constitutionally ordained and shall have precedence over other elections that are enshrined in legislation.
The ruling party and the government contend that the elections of the political association shall be held first. Then the three parties that win this election shall compete in the presidential election. Their contention is that Law No. 14 stipulates that newly registered political associations shall have temporary certification to operate for six months. Hence, the election shall occur within six months, starting from the date the Commission grants the provisional certificate. The expected date for granting such a certificate is June 2022.
Failed negotiations
The President has invited the opposition leaders to his office to solve the quandary. On 17 May 2022, the political leaders, in a joint statement, said they had agreed to resume negotiations after the 18 May celebrations (National Day).
A meeting took place at the palace on 24 May. The opposition leaders held a press conference that night and accused the President of not being willing to negotiate in good faith. A few days later, they declared that the talks were suspended, and they announced that they would hold public protests to “save Somaliland.”The Minister of Interior, who is also the deputy chairman of the ruling party, issued a decision on 29 May stating that the demonstrations are not permitted and ordered the security agencies to prevent them.
Possible scenarios
The following are possible scenarios. The order does not show precedence or preference.
v Extensions: it is a possible scenario for both the president and the political parties to gain an extension of terms. The term of the president will expire on 13 December 2022, whereas the license of the political parties will also expire in December 2022. The sides in the conflict might agree to push both elections on a future timetable based on technical recommendations made by the National Electoral Commission. In this scenario, the presidential election takes place first, followed by the elections for the political associations/parties.
v Holding both elections on the same date: On May 2021, Somaliland conducted parliamentary and local council elections. The experience of May 2021 can be replicated this year by holding the presidential election and the elections for political parties/associations on the same date.
v Extension of the president’s term: This involves extending the president’s term and holding the elections for political associations/parties this year or early next year.
v Presidential election on 13 November 2022: It relates to conducting the presidential election on 13 November 2022 as scheduled and pushing the elections for political parties/associations next year.6.3 Durable solutions
The present-day disagreement and its substance are not new to Somaliland. Since 2008, Somaliland has been amidst continual meaningless and avoidable political wrangling that threatens the stability of Somaliland and its democratisation process. Solutions have been short-term painkillers that did not address the root causes. The culmination of polarisation, poverty and inept institutions that failed to deliver services or live up to their promises position Somaliland on a dangerous path. Therefore, Somaliland’s leaders should take their responsibilities seriously and create a conductive environment that can sustain democracy and stability in conformity with the constitutions, the rule of law, and democratic principles.
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